I am reconsidering what I think about predictions markets.
I thought they were a nice idea and could help surface insights and reduce the distance between stated preferences and revealed preferences but both polymarket and kalshi seem to be engaging in bad practices. In the short term it may hype them up but seems unsustainable and damaging for their long term
How much of forecasting is actuarial? Insurance and risk calculation in terms of applied statistics. Prediction markets appear to surface that, similar to maybe poker and the probability of certain hands.
I am reconsidering what I think about predictions markets.
I thought they were a nice idea and could help surface insights and reduce the distance between stated preferences and revealed preferences but both polymarket and kalshi seem to be engaging in bad practices. In the short term it may hype them up but seems unsustainable and damaging for their long term
How much of forecasting is actuarial? Insurance and risk calculation in terms of applied statistics. Prediction markets appear to surface that, similar to maybe poker and the probability of certain hands.
Incentives?