There are many possible futures, but the one that will come to pass is the one we collectively allow to happen. To a degree, of course.
A future that I like to imagine is one where LLM scaling laws hit a plateau. Plateau-level LLMs become commodities. They get distilled into small sizes. Everybody can have plateau-level local LLMs. People discover that it’s better to be a local-powered independent centaur than to be a reverse centaur for a mega-corp.
I believe there will be a massive shift from a lot of white-collar jobs to blue-collar jobs, as these jobs will be the ones most affected by AI. I believe Western countries will be poorer than they are now, and countries in Asia and Africa will become richer as more money will flow into their manufacturing and Agricultural industries.
In the West, decline of living standards and continued decay of institutions. Probably very few organizations actually benefit from LLMs, mostly bankers.
You can predict by using one of several techniques:
1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now
2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters
2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial
3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)
...and many more with increasing levels of complexity
There are many possible futures, but the one that will come to pass is the one we collectively allow to happen. To a degree, of course.
A future that I like to imagine is one where LLM scaling laws hit a plateau. Plateau-level LLMs become commodities. They get distilled into small sizes. Everybody can have plateau-level local LLMs. People discover that it’s better to be a local-powered independent centaur than to be a reverse centaur for a mega-corp.
I believe there will be a massive shift from a lot of white-collar jobs to blue-collar jobs, as these jobs will be the ones most affected by AI. I believe Western countries will be poorer than they are now, and countries in Asia and Africa will become richer as more money will flow into their manufacturing and Agricultural industries.
Maybe more service oriented than blue collar.
In the West, decline of living standards and continued decay of institutions. Probably very few organizations actually benefit from LLMs, mostly bankers.
Elsewhere? who knows
I predict that most predictions in this thread will be wrong. Other than that, who the heck knows?
LLM's will be confidently wrong at a much higher token-per-second rate
You can predict by using one of several techniques:
1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now
2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters
2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial
3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)
...and many more with increasing levels of complexity
I predict that the world would be better for the Scandinavian countries. All other countries - I have no idea.
And for LLM & AI, I predict that the tech bros overestimate the pace of change, while the average joe underestimate the new capabilities.