This startup is Substrate. Substrate’s founders have no relevant industry experience and the main founder’s previous gig was a Kickstarter for an alarm clock that failed to deliver on most of their promises https://foxchapelresearch.substack.com/p/i-think-substrate-i...
So I suggest ignoring all of the Substrate hype until they share some proof.
Has anyone actually seen verification? (other than lot's and lot's of press release type collateral I don't see any evidence of anyone publicly stating that they work for this company. The press releases claim they have 50 employees many of whom were experienced frok semiconductor equipment companies but can anyone actually put their hand up and claim to be one of those people? Also the list of companies is a little suspicious as if designed to pass a sniff test for a naive audience and the careers page is particularly misaligned with what you would expect they're looking for. The only scientist they're hiring is an "AI" scientist?)
Until proof is actually given I just assume this is a pump and dump which is taking advantage both America First dollars and AI hype. The founder(s) have zero background in this area and while they could be savants, it seems doubtful. The whole background does not pass my sniff test, not to emntion all of their PR photos try to work in the American flag which is cool but something I would do if I was trying to pump it up.
Not only that... I would really have to see something tangible from a company that makes these kind of claims. ASML's technology is some of the most complex and advanced in the world and has it has taken decades to get there. Of course it is possible, but without something tangible to back up their claims, I think I will remain skeptical.
Also I'm sure there are university labs that can do similar things as ASML ... the bigger problem is doing it at scale in a repeatable way that can be sold as an actual product and also not infringing on ASML patents.
They are claiming 50 employees. I don't think that is anywhere near enough. I'd expect hundreds or even thousands of engineers are needed, and for every engineer there are a dozen of other support staff roles. ASML has 40,000 employees, but we can guess some are in other product areas (what I don't know). Let me know when they have had 10,000 employees for 5 years and I'll start believing it.
From what I've been told by former ASML employees, ASML is not particularly worried about startups inventing a better method than their current lithography process because they basically run the entire chip production pipeline. Improving only one step of this pipeline is not enough to break their moat.
This is not accurate.. ASML provides important parts of the stack but there are a variety of semiconductor equipment companies providing critical inputs
This came up on Stratechery recently. Shame on Stratechery for not asking any hard questions or digging deeper. There was some skepticism from Ben Thompson, but no actual ask for any sort of proof whatsoever. The interview came across like someone told them they had to interview this company (or applied lots of pressure to get their name out there). This MSN fluff piece does the same thing.
My theory is that they're carpet bombing the news and blogs with marketing pieces to get US Fed and more VC interest in this to secure financing. Note the strong nationalistic framing around building in the USA and it being an imperative of US place in the world.
Especially the explanation how they use two milisecond laser shots to first molt the tin and then distribute it symetrically(!!!) with a second shot across the surface.
There IS NO chance that this startup will be able to somehow compete, if even Chinese state actors cant do it (yet).
This and other comments along with lack of work hours are the main social reasons why the EU has fallen so far behind. I fear if this isn't corrected soon the EU will become completely irrelevant in the not to distant future. What were mountains in the 50s-90s are molehills today
In any case they aren't competing on EUV but on packaging and xray(which probably won't work without new science as it's been done to death) so your comment is moot.
"Substrate isn’t stopping there. They intend to run the tools in their own fabs rather than sell to 3rd parties."
A bonkers idea if true. Trying to create TSMC and ASML in one company doubles your challenges. We've seen just how hard Intel has found being a fab and they are using ASML machines.....
Cuts both ways as risks being similar to Theranos with former secretaries of state types on their board. As was pointed out of the time the big question was who was on the science board and I think the same question applies here
Over the years, especially in areas where some "hard science" is needed I've been seeing the US startup / US founder announcements where in reality is mostly a cash grab for VC money, a glowing marketing operation for some dipshit business venture outsourced to indians or easter europeans or the typical trust fund kid playing "Little Timmy does startup" game.
This startup is Substrate. Substrate’s founders have no relevant industry experience and the main founder’s previous gig was a Kickstarter for an alarm clock that failed to deliver on most of their promises https://foxchapelresearch.substack.com/p/i-think-substrate-i...
So I suggest ignoring all of the Substrate hype until they share some proof.
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Has anyone actually seen verification? (other than lot's and lot's of press release type collateral I don't see any evidence of anyone publicly stating that they work for this company. The press releases claim they have 50 employees many of whom were experienced frok semiconductor equipment companies but can anyone actually put their hand up and claim to be one of those people? Also the list of companies is a little suspicious as if designed to pass a sniff test for a naive audience and the careers page is particularly misaligned with what you would expect they're looking for. The only scientist they're hiring is an "AI" scientist?)
Until proof is actually given I just assume this is a pump and dump which is taking advantage both America First dollars and AI hype. The founder(s) have zero background in this area and while they could be savants, it seems doubtful. The whole background does not pass my sniff test, not to emntion all of their PR photos try to work in the American flag which is cool but something I would do if I was trying to pump it up.
Another red flag: Using China threat as a reason why people should invest/believe in them.
If they can truly deliver what they promise, they will have billions of dollars begging them to take it. No need to bring China in this.
Source: https://substrate.com/our-purpose
Even if it is verified it's not groundbreaking. X-Ray litho has been done in labs since at least the 90s.
Not only that... I would really have to see something tangible from a company that makes these kind of claims. ASML's technology is some of the most complex and advanced in the world and has it has taken decades to get there. Of course it is possible, but without something tangible to back up their claims, I think I will remain skeptical.
Also I'm sure there are university labs that can do similar things as ASML ... the bigger problem is doing it at scale in a repeatable way that can be sold as an actual product and also not infringing on ASML patents.
Universities can do electron beam litho or UV litho, but EUV litho is way outside capability.
They are claiming 50 employees. I don't think that is anywhere near enough. I'd expect hundreds or even thousands of engineers are needed, and for every engineer there are a dozen of other support staff roles. ASML has 40,000 employees, but we can guess some are in other product areas (what I don't know). Let me know when they have had 10,000 employees for 5 years and I'll start believing it.
With their $100m of funding they could afford about 1/4th of one of ASMLs latest-gen machines.
Matching that when all you have is minuscule fraction of ASMLs R&D budget (~tens of billions for their latest process) would be... impressive.
There's a more likely explanation for their claims however.
From what I've been told by former ASML employees, ASML is not particularly worried about startups inventing a better method than their current lithography process because they basically run the entire chip production pipeline. Improving only one step of this pipeline is not enough to break their moat.
This is not accurate.. ASML provides important parts of the stack but there are a variety of semiconductor equipment companies providing critical inputs
This came up on Stratechery recently. Shame on Stratechery for not asking any hard questions or digging deeper. There was some skepticism from Ben Thompson, but no actual ask for any sort of proof whatsoever. The interview came across like someone told them they had to interview this company (or applied lots of pressure to get their name out there). This MSN fluff piece does the same thing.
My theory is that they're carpet bombing the news and blogs with marketing pieces to get US Fed and more VC interest in this to secure financing. Note the strong nationalistic framing around building in the USA and it being an imperative of US place in the world.
> around building in the USA and it being an imperative of US place in the world
...and China bad (incl. military supremacy). I wonder how much more obvious it should be.
LOL, I recommend highly to everyone who thinks a startup can challenge ASML this 1.38min video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_zgURwr6nA
Its an industrial flight video through a ASML TWIN Exe HighNAV.
Here is also a presentation of ~45min at CCC / Germany (in English language) which I highly recommend to watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdppYYfQJgg
Especially the explanation how they use two milisecond laser shots to first molt the tin and then distribute it symetrically(!!!) with a second shot across the surface.
There IS NO chance that this startup will be able to somehow compete, if even Chinese state actors cant do it (yet).
This and other comments along with lack of work hours are the main social reasons why the EU has fallen so far behind. I fear if this isn't corrected soon the EU will become completely irrelevant in the not to distant future. What were mountains in the 50s-90s are molehills today
In any case they aren't competing on EUV but on packaging and xray(which probably won't work without new science as it's been done to death) so your comment is moot.
SemiAnalysis published an interesting piece about this recently: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/how-to-kill-2-monopoli...
"Substrate isn’t stopping there. They intend to run the tools in their own fabs rather than sell to 3rd parties."
A bonkers idea if true. Trying to create TSMC and ASML in one company doubles your challenges. We've seen just how hard Intel has found being a fab and they are using ASML machines.....
Previously discussed on:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45767013
Discussing a blog entry titled "I think Substrate is a $1 Billion Fraud".
Also the company seems to be well-connected to the Trump-admin. Which I guess could be a good thing?
Cuts both ways as risks being similar to Theranos with former secretaries of state types on their board. As was pointed out of the time the big question was who was on the science board and I think the same question applies here
>Also the company seems to be well-connected to the Trump-admin. Which I guess could be a good thing?
In terms of real-world results -- highly unlikely. In terms of funding - for sure.
Over the years, especially in areas where some "hard science" is needed I've been seeing the US startup / US founder announcements where in reality is mostly a cash grab for VC money, a glowing marketing operation for some dipshit business venture outsourced to indians or easter europeans or the typical trust fund kid playing "Little Timmy does startup" game.
Sure not all of it, but a HUGE part of it.
To be clear ASML, like anyone, is disruptible... I'd just hate to see hucksters sour everyone's taste to the idea.
[dupe]
News from two weeks ago.
Some discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45745536
Would be fun to see them announce Tachyum as their first customer :)
Sounds like they need money.