This article feels a bit one-sided. It doesn’t mention that the rule change was made on September 29, 2025, and applies retroactively to already-issued CDLs. It also omits that this was an “emergency” rule, which took effect immediately without the usual notice-and-comment period. So, when they say California was caught “red-handed” violating the law, the reality is that California was following the old law and hadn't yet retroactively applied the newly changed rule to existing licenses.
> Nearly half of the country’s vegetables and over three-quarters of the country’s fruits and nuts are grown in California
How many drivers will they be short as a result of this administration's actions, and how should we expect driver shortages to affect the price of food and other goods?
Did they intend to increase food prices with this action?
I don't want to get bogged down in the politics part, so I will speak to driver capacity. There is never a shortage of CDL/truck drivers in the US, its all about having as many drivers as possible that can be paid as little as possible, so this should be mostly immaterial considering CDL drivers either in or within short haul driving distance of California. Authorized drivers will fill this gap.
> He did, however, finally acknowledge that federal government issued these drivers work permits.
But let's discuss the economics:
When there are not drivers taking loads (e.g. from load boards), perishables go to waste and production and distribution costs increase. Sellers pass those costs - CDL shortage, failure at free trade, bullying in external affairs, tariffs - onto consumers.
Consumers spend less when food prices increase but wages do not.
Stressed by sudden increases in cost of living, consumers then don't eat healthy and choose to take rational risks and invest in growth.
We can argue back and forth whether this is a consumer price issue, or shareholder returns issue, but it will not matter. Congress has failed to effectively handle immigration for almost two decades, and we are here. Unauthorized immigrants are effectively slave labor in the US, who will be treated inhumanely because of their situation and high risk of being deported. If there is no path to citizenship, they are not safe on US soil. Enable their safety, even if that is outside the US. My personal opinion is treat the human humanely and with dignity, whenever possible.
If we want wages to go up, labor supply must be constrained (short term; long term, unions and organizing, but that takes years at best). Price levels will never come back down, so if you want wages to go up, you must take action to do so. Constrain the labor supply by any legal means necessary. If we want people to eat healthier, we should subsidize those parts of the agriculture system instead of cash crops for export and biofuels, no? Leveraging underpaid labor who live in constant fear is not a path to success from a cost component perspective, imho.
I cannot stress this enough: wages must go up to climb towards price levels, through most of the lower income parts of the economy.
Congress has failed to handle: debt-financing of illegal wars and killing since at least 1980.
It would probably make more sense to make sustainable food packaging out of subsidized crops than to make biofuels. But then they'd be cutting into oil's margin.
Why do you think that people are moving here while the US Government makes war - land, sea, and economic - in their countries?
Why are they turning talent away?
...
how to quantify the shortage of truck drivers
An LLM:
> The "shortage" is quantified differently depending on the methodology:
> Industry Estimates (ATA): Uses economic modeling to project a gap of tens of thousands of drivers, potentially growing to over 160,000 in the coming years.
> Skeptical View (OOIDA, BLS analysis): Points to high driver turnover and a large number of annual CDL issuances as evidence that a true, market-wide labor shortage does not exist, but rather a problem with driver retention and working conditions.
Turnover and working conditions are causes of the trucking labor shortage
Can that even be measured without BLS data for October?
I feel like they're screwing over 200,000 people that were just doing the job, in order to pander to the otherwise ineffectual xenophobes (that they've weakly attached to the narcissism of for fear of abandonment by their hater friends they can't escape and so must appease).
How could we identify periods of strong growth in jobs and wages?
How could we measure whether or not trickling load orders are being filled?
> "Constrain the labor supply by any legal means necessary"
That is neither conservative, nor libertarian, nor laissez faire.
That isn't fiscally conservative.
(Dumbly f bullying the economy that way is likely to create costs for real citizens and future administrations.)
That isn't strict constructionist conservative.
(Nowhere in the Constitution does it say to levy unnecessary taxes in times of unprecedented debt and peace, or to off 200K drivers that the federal government granted work permits to)
This article feels a bit one-sided. It doesn’t mention that the rule change was made on September 29, 2025, and applies retroactively to already-issued CDLs. It also omits that this was an “emergency” rule, which took effect immediately without the usual notice-and-comment period. So, when they say California was caught “red-handed” violating the law, the reality is that California was following the old law and hadn't yet retroactively applied the newly changed rule to existing licenses.
FWIW, https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/
> Nearly half of the country’s vegetables and over three-quarters of the country’s fruits and nuts are grown in California
How many drivers will they be short as a result of this administration's actions, and how should we expect driver shortages to affect the price of food and other goods?
Did they intend to increase food prices with this action?
I don't want to get bogged down in the politics part, so I will speak to driver capacity. There is never a shortage of CDL/truck drivers in the US, its all about having as many drivers as possible that can be paid as little as possible, so this should be mostly immaterial considering CDL drivers either in or within short haul driving distance of California. Authorized drivers will fill this gap.
Related:
The perpetual truck driver shortage is not real - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37394109 - September 2023
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/the-perpetual-truck-driver...
In other words, like for other jobs such as farm work: lots of available workers if you pay them enough?
> Authorized drivers
Here's the legal apolitical part: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/11/48825719/gavin-n... :
> He did, however, finally acknowledge that federal government issued these drivers work permits.
But let's discuss the economics:
When there are not drivers taking loads (e.g. from load boards), perishables go to waste and production and distribution costs increase. Sellers pass those costs - CDL shortage, failure at free trade, bullying in external affairs, tariffs - onto consumers.
Consumers spend less when food prices increase but wages do not.
Stressed by sudden increases in cost of living, consumers then don't eat healthy and choose to take rational risks and invest in growth.
We can argue back and forth whether this is a consumer price issue, or shareholder returns issue, but it will not matter. Congress has failed to effectively handle immigration for almost two decades, and we are here. Unauthorized immigrants are effectively slave labor in the US, who will be treated inhumanely because of their situation and high risk of being deported. If there is no path to citizenship, they are not safe on US soil. Enable their safety, even if that is outside the US. My personal opinion is treat the human humanely and with dignity, whenever possible.
If we want wages to go up, labor supply must be constrained (short term; long term, unions and organizing, but that takes years at best). Price levels will never come back down, so if you want wages to go up, you must take action to do so. Constrain the labor supply by any legal means necessary. If we want people to eat healthier, we should subsidize those parts of the agriculture system instead of cash crops for export and biofuels, no? Leveraging underpaid labor who live in constant fear is not a path to success from a cost component perspective, imho.
I cannot stress this enough: wages must go up to climb towards price levels, through most of the lower income parts of the economy.
Congress has failed to handle: debt-financing of illegal wars and killing since at least 1980.
It would probably make more sense to make sustainable food packaging out of subsidized crops than to make biofuels. But then they'd be cutting into oil's margin.
Why do you think that people are moving here while the US Government makes war - land, sea, and economic - in their countries?
Why are they turning talent away?
...
how to quantify the shortage of truck drivers
An LLM:
> The "shortage" is quantified differently depending on the methodology:
> Industry Estimates (ATA): Uses economic modeling to project a gap of tens of thousands of drivers, potentially growing to over 160,000 in the coming years.
> Skeptical View (OOIDA, BLS analysis): Points to high driver turnover and a large number of annual CDL issuances as evidence that a true, market-wide labor shortage does not exist, but rather a problem with driver retention and working conditions.
Turnover and working conditions are causes of the trucking labor shortage
Can that even be measured without BLS data for October?
I feel like they're screwing over 200,000 people that were just doing the job, in order to pander to the otherwise ineffectual xenophobes (that they've weakly attached to the narcissism of for fear of abandonment by their hater friends they can't escape and so must appease).
How could we identify periods of strong growth in jobs and wages?
How could we measure whether or not trickling load orders are being filled?
> "Constrain the labor supply by any legal means necessary"
That is neither conservative, nor libertarian, nor laissez faire.
That isn't fiscally conservative.
(Dumbly f bullying the economy that way is likely to create costs for real citizens and future administrations.)
That isn't strict constructionist conservative.
(Nowhere in the Constitution does it say to levy unnecessary taxes in times of unprecedented debt and peace, or to off 200K drivers that the federal government granted work permits to)
Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45915852