I find it odd that, in very few of the articles that take a positive view on Chinas outlook in this trade war is it mentioned that China is knee deep in debt (when shadow debt is included) and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe.
It could still turn out well for China. It’s just that this risk should be mentioned. Otherwise it’s easy to believe that Chinas win here is inevitable.
> and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe
Domestic debt (in the country's own currency) behaves differently from foreign debt.
Domestic one is the kind that is actually never paid out, unless the government does something very stupid.
China has other kinds of problems, and the article has the same kind of simplistic mercantilist view of the world that journalists seem very adept to and that the current US government is applying. So, while there are stuff to be said about them, you won't get anything of value here.
if the goal of the trade war is to hurt china through their debt situation, then how would that not affect the entire global system? china default sounds bad
(2) China is still ideologically communist authoritarian nation with market economy.
They can fix thing by fiat. No need to think about legal issues or respect property right. They can give X% haircut for bad debt, or freeze debt payments for 5 years for debts they think are destabilizing the economy. They don't have to give same treatment to all debt.
Demographics is the problem for China in long term, not debt.
Demographics is a problem for the US also, but the easiest solution, immigration, is no longer acceptable (if ever it was) to an increasingly vocal minority. To be fair to the US, that situation is shared by many other countries in the West, and I'm not sure that China is ready for that solution either.
Plus that they finally have someone else to blame, and it seems like people want to pretend it's all someone else's fault too. Probably don't even need to use their authoritarian cards.
Those same other countries will have to spend more for US exports so they have less to spend on Chinese exports. China will lose access to a lot of agricultural exports. Someone is going to blink first and it may not be who anyone expects. All we can do is eat popcorn and watch
> China will lose access to a lot of agricultural exports.
you better check your popcorn is not doped.
China doesn't export agricultural stuff, the US does that. China needs to import a shit load of agricultural stuff, there is a country called Russia next to China that has a lot of such products to offer.
The current US administration does not seem to get things conceptually right … nobody seems to know what they are up to … the government seems to be on a constant knee jerk reaction mode … when will there be an adult in the room? As tax payers, we are not getting our money worth. Firing may come soon.
Firing by whom? How? The Republican aparatchiks in congress will not kick Trump out if they don't have a better alternative, better in the sense of it'll be better for their ideology and corruption. And even then we'll get JD Couchfucker as president. The regime is already ignoring the courts, as if asking "What are you going to do about it?".
I have a feeling the only way out of this is some sort of violence or threat of it, when someone in the military dares to defend the constitution rather than "just follow orders"... (ironically something that many Americans look disdainly at German soldiers of doing in the 40's...).
that stupid lie about the couch is a great example of the kind of rhetoric the Democrats clung to instead of coming up with a platform that would speak to populists afraid of the hollowing out of their communities through global trade.
shit like that just exhausts people, and then they don't show up to vote. every time you repeat a pointless lie like that, you give ammo to the people who say the Democrats lie about everything and only focus on character assassination.
That stupid couch lie is certainly one of the reasons Trump won
Hey if the other side constantly spout lies, I'm not going to stop reusing this meme. It's not like I'm trying to win any elections, and probably not the heart or mind of a dingnut.
> Democrats lie about everything and only focus on character assassination.
Oh, I see a brilliant aurora borealis, from this massive eruption of irony.
There should be a name for this genre of rhetoric, where literally everything any leftist/progressive/liberal/Democrat has ever done is the reason Trump won.
The Democratic Party didn't come up with the couch meme, it came from social media. It certainly didn't exist as official Democratic Party policy "instead of" an actual platform.
And the people it exhausted would never have listened to anything the Democrats had to say, nor ever voted for them. Those people already believed the Democrats lie about everything and focus on character assassination. And they claimed that Biden was a pedophile with crippling dementia, and that Hillary Clinton was a baby-eating witch, and that Obama was a Marxist Al-Qaeda sympathizer and probably the antichrist.
You jackasses need to learn to get as good as you give.
Sadly it looks like the other way round. EU is suddenly really frightened and feels alone, and is still hard at pleasing the US instead of going the self-sufficient way.
It’s a bit early to claim victory; to make a comparison with American history, the Civil War was expected to be over in 6 months, when it first started.
Chinese leadership is wise enough to know that they don't exist in a vacuum. They don't want the US ruined, they want the US reduced to a powerful and wealthy state, but not a more powerful state than them or their allies. They don't have global domination goals similar to the US.
If you think about it, the US spends enormous amounts on military, trying to protect a world order and economic stability. China is one of the benefactors of this investment. Why should China spend as much as the US when the US can spend it for them? Why should China spend/invest on so many institutions to support their own standard currency like the USD? China is the #1 owner of US bonds,they lose more than any foreign entity if the US economy collapses too quickly.
They just want control over their neighbors and obviously to be a super-power like the US to where they can influence trade partners as they wish. An America that is prosperous economically but neutered diplomatically is ideal for them.
The one thing trump did many aren't noticing too closely is that he dismantled the institutions and organizations built around spreading democracy around the world. I vehemently oppose his reasoning and intent (and just overall everything about this administration), but the result might be for the best in terms of a global balance of power and avoiding wars with China.
Taiwan is a good example and at the core of US/China hostilities, Trump isn't going to defend Taiwan, that's a given. It sucks, but if Taiwan's survival depends on WW3 breaking out if they get invaded, then their situation is already untenable. I'm convinced China will regain full control over Taiwan by the end of this decade, and without any military conflict. If the US will stay out of regional power grabs and conflicts (the Vietnam war was caused by the US trying to stop China in this regard), then I suspect there could actually be a possibility for peaceful relations with China.
Keep in mind that China isn't even competing with the US in most areas, unless the US really does want to bring back a manufacturing industry that will export to the world and compete with the China.
The main reason the US will remain an economic super power is the lack of worker protections in the US and the liberties and luxuries the rich enjoy in the US (business-friendly as they say). China in comparison is very hostile and unstable (look at what they did to their own billionaire last year) to the rich. Sad to say, but because China would rather look out for their own people, the US is still a better place not just for the rich but even for academia (lots of research funding, private uni's that do well,etc..).
Oh, and keep in mind that trump's isolationism will only work if he carriers through with threats of invading other countries. Literally every country except like Russia is turning away from the US on every front. If this was something I was reading in a history book, I would say the collapse of the US as an empire and a nation is being engineered with great efficiency. But I suspect in reality it would be more like reducing the US to the size of Germany in terms of economics and the UK in terms of military.
I hope for and would be impressed if subsequent administrations manage to prevent or even contain he cascading collapse started by this administration. I suspect it takes about 20 years for the military side of things to play out and a full generation cycle (40-50 yrs) for people to start referring to the US empire in the past tense like the USSR?
China, based on demographics alone, will never be a demand based consumption economy. The only reason so much stuff is still made in China is the sunk cost to build an industrial complex.
In the end, it really doesn't matter what the issues with China are. There are an endless number of points that if you bother to look into it the chinese are not peers of the US. However, the US, need an external boogeyman who appears competent to make politics work.
I find it odd that, in very few of the articles that take a positive view on Chinas outlook in this trade war is it mentioned that China is knee deep in debt (when shadow debt is included) and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe.
It could still turn out well for China. It’s just that this risk should be mentioned. Otherwise it’s easy to believe that Chinas win here is inevitable.
It has massive resources and exports to everyone around the globe.
USA is alienating everyone including Canada.
So who wins that game?
> and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe
Domestic debt (in the country's own currency) behaves differently from foreign debt.
Domestic one is the kind that is actually never paid out, unless the government does something very stupid.
China has other kinds of problems, and the article has the same kind of simplistic mercantilist view of the world that journalists seem very adept to and that the current US government is applying. So, while there are stuff to be said about them, you won't get anything of value here.
if the goal of the trade war is to hurt china through their debt situation, then how would that not affect the entire global system? china default sounds bad
I don't think it's odd.
(1) Chinese debt is internal.
(2) China is still ideologically communist authoritarian nation with market economy.
They can fix thing by fiat. No need to think about legal issues or respect property right. They can give X% haircut for bad debt, or freeze debt payments for 5 years for debts they think are destabilizing the economy. They don't have to give same treatment to all debt.
Demographics is the problem for China in long term, not debt.
Demographics is a problem for the US also, but the easiest solution, immigration, is no longer acceptable (if ever it was) to an increasingly vocal minority. To be fair to the US, that situation is shared by many other countries in the West, and I'm not sure that China is ready for that solution either.
Illegal immigration is a bipartisan issue both democrat and republican voters want to kick them out, it isn't some vocal minority.
Billionaires wants them here, not poor people.
Plus that they finally have someone else to blame, and it seems like people want to pretend it's all someone else's fault too. Probably don't even need to use their authoritarian cards.
It's hard to see how China will not profit in various ways from the US going into self-destruct mode.
Well... that is: China & other parties (Europe, India, maybe Brazil or some African nations, ...). Russia's downward spiral doesn't hurt China either.
The US still needs China (read: its manufacturing base) for many things. The other way around, not so much.
Those same other countries will have to spend more for US exports so they have less to spend on Chinese exports. China will lose access to a lot of agricultural exports. Someone is going to blink first and it may not be who anyone expects. All we can do is eat popcorn and watch
> China will lose access to a lot of agricultural exports.
you better check your popcorn is not doped.
China doesn't export agricultural stuff, the US does that. China needs to import a shit load of agricultural stuff, there is a country called Russia next to China that has a lot of such products to offer.
I used wording that is slightly confusing. They lose access to other countries exports, so China’s imports.
USA provides 5x the agricultural exports as Russia. I’m sure they will fill the gap
The current US administration does not seem to get things conceptually right … nobody seems to know what they are up to … the government seems to be on a constant knee jerk reaction mode … when will there be an adult in the room? As tax payers, we are not getting our money worth. Firing may come soon.
Firing by whom? How? The Republican aparatchiks in congress will not kick Trump out if they don't have a better alternative, better in the sense of it'll be better for their ideology and corruption. And even then we'll get JD Couchfucker as president. The regime is already ignoring the courts, as if asking "What are you going to do about it?".
I have a feeling the only way out of this is some sort of violence or threat of it, when someone in the military dares to defend the constitution rather than "just follow orders"... (ironically something that many Americans look disdainly at German soldiers of doing in the 40's...).
that stupid lie about the couch is a great example of the kind of rhetoric the Democrats clung to instead of coming up with a platform that would speak to populists afraid of the hollowing out of their communities through global trade.
shit like that just exhausts people, and then they don't show up to vote. every time you repeat a pointless lie like that, you give ammo to the people who say the Democrats lie about everything and only focus on character assassination.
That stupid couch lie is certainly one of the reasons Trump won
Hey if the other side constantly spout lies, I'm not going to stop reusing this meme. It's not like I'm trying to win any elections, and probably not the heart or mind of a dingnut.
> Democrats lie about everything and only focus on character assassination.
Oh, I see a brilliant aurora borealis, from this massive eruption of irony.
"...they are eating the cats. They’re eating – they are eating the pets of the people that live there."
This is so backwards. Also stupid, but you are not good at paying attention to the world around you & discerning reality.
There should be a name for this genre of rhetoric, where literally everything any leftist/progressive/liberal/Democrat has ever done is the reason Trump won.
The Democratic Party didn't come up with the couch meme, it came from social media. It certainly didn't exist as official Democratic Party policy "instead of" an actual platform.
And the people it exhausted would never have listened to anything the Democrats had to say, nor ever voted for them. Those people already believed the Democrats lie about everything and focus on character assassination. And they claimed that Biden was a pedophile with crippling dementia, and that Hillary Clinton was a baby-eating witch, and that Obama was a Marxist Al-Qaeda sympathizer and probably the antichrist.
You jackasses need to learn to get as good as you give.
> If Europe is empowered as a result of the US self-sabotage shenanigans, the situation may well turn out much less convenient for Russia.
I kind of hope that happens. China can do ok just not getting involved in the various fights as far as it can.
Sadly it looks like the other way round. EU is suddenly really frightened and feels alone, and is still hard at pleasing the US instead of going the self-sufficient way.
It’s a bit early to claim victory; to make a comparison with American history, the Civil War was expected to be over in 6 months, when it first started.
And how many factories capable of casting steel cannons were in the south?
US soon will be a "banana republic" with nukes, that won't end well for the world
I find this author very difficult to read
I'll guess English is not their native language but then I'd expect to see simplified-english, and instead I find a dense thicket
as though they think they are completely fluent, and then throw alien forms, phrases, idioms and analogies around
you can pretty much replace the current US president with a random number generator and be better off as a nation.
with that in mind, you don't need helps from the best AI to figure out that how is the winner and who is the loser.
Chinese leadership is wise enough to know that they don't exist in a vacuum. They don't want the US ruined, they want the US reduced to a powerful and wealthy state, but not a more powerful state than them or their allies. They don't have global domination goals similar to the US.
If you think about it, the US spends enormous amounts on military, trying to protect a world order and economic stability. China is one of the benefactors of this investment. Why should China spend as much as the US when the US can spend it for them? Why should China spend/invest on so many institutions to support their own standard currency like the USD? China is the #1 owner of US bonds,they lose more than any foreign entity if the US economy collapses too quickly.
They just want control over their neighbors and obviously to be a super-power like the US to where they can influence trade partners as they wish. An America that is prosperous economically but neutered diplomatically is ideal for them.
The one thing trump did many aren't noticing too closely is that he dismantled the institutions and organizations built around spreading democracy around the world. I vehemently oppose his reasoning and intent (and just overall everything about this administration), but the result might be for the best in terms of a global balance of power and avoiding wars with China.
Taiwan is a good example and at the core of US/China hostilities, Trump isn't going to defend Taiwan, that's a given. It sucks, but if Taiwan's survival depends on WW3 breaking out if they get invaded, then their situation is already untenable. I'm convinced China will regain full control over Taiwan by the end of this decade, and without any military conflict. If the US will stay out of regional power grabs and conflicts (the Vietnam war was caused by the US trying to stop China in this regard), then I suspect there could actually be a possibility for peaceful relations with China.
Keep in mind that China isn't even competing with the US in most areas, unless the US really does want to bring back a manufacturing industry that will export to the world and compete with the China.
The main reason the US will remain an economic super power is the lack of worker protections in the US and the liberties and luxuries the rich enjoy in the US (business-friendly as they say). China in comparison is very hostile and unstable (look at what they did to their own billionaire last year) to the rich. Sad to say, but because China would rather look out for their own people, the US is still a better place not just for the rich but even for academia (lots of research funding, private uni's that do well,etc..).
Oh, and keep in mind that trump's isolationism will only work if he carriers through with threats of invading other countries. Literally every country except like Russia is turning away from the US on every front. If this was something I was reading in a history book, I would say the collapse of the US as an empire and a nation is being engineered with great efficiency. But I suspect in reality it would be more like reducing the US to the size of Germany in terms of economics and the UK in terms of military.
I hope for and would be impressed if subsequent administrations manage to prevent or even contain he cascading collapse started by this administration. I suspect it takes about 20 years for the military side of things to play out and a full generation cycle (40-50 yrs) for people to start referring to the US empire in the past tense like the USSR?
Was this article legit voted up? Whole thing smacks of internet astroturfing pr campaign.
China, based on demographics alone, will never be a demand based consumption economy. The only reason so much stuff is still made in China is the sunk cost to build an industrial complex.
In the end, it really doesn't matter what the issues with China are. There are an endless number of points that if you bother to look into it the chinese are not peers of the US. However, the US, need an external boogeyman who appears competent to make politics work.
> However, the US, need an external boogeyman who appears competent to make politics work.
The republicans need an external boogeyman, the dems are very willing to create internal boogeymen.